3 days popular7 days popular1 month popular3 months popular

New report examines implications of growing gap in life span by income for entitlement programs

As the gap in life expectancy between the highest and lowest earners in the U.S. has widened over time, high earners have disproportionately received larger lifetime benefits from government programs such as Social Security and Medicare, says a new congressionally mandated report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The report looked at life expectancy patterns among a group of Americans born in 1930 and compared those with projections for a group born in 1960.

“Life expectancy has risen significantly in the U.S. over the past century, and it has long been the case that people who are better-educated and earn higher incomes live longer, on average, than those with less education and lower incomes,” said Peter Orszag, co-chair of the committee that carried out the study and wrote the report, and vice chairman of Citigroup in New York City. “What has changed is that the life expectancy gap across different income groups has become so much bigger.”

Men born in 1930 in the highest of five earnings levels who survived to age 50 could expect to live to be about 82 years old, on average, while men born in 1960 in the same earnings bracket are projected to live an average of 89 years – a substantial gain. In contrast, life expectancy for men with the lowest earnings was found to decline slightly, from 77 years old on average for men born in 1930 to 76 years old on average for men born in 1960. The projections for women show a similar pattern, in that life expectancy gains have been larger for higher earners than lower earners.

To evaluate the effect of the widening life-span gap on benefits received from Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, the committee simulated the levels of benefits received by a generation with the lifespans of those born in 1930 and compared them with the benefits received by a generation with the lifespans of those born in 1960. (The simulation kept all other characteristics across the groups the same, except for health and mortality.)

The simulation found that for men born in 1930, lifetime entitlement benefits received after age 50 are roughly similar across income groups. Even among those born in 1930, high earners had longer life spans, so they tend to receive more from Social Security, while lower earners receive more on average from Medicaid, disability insurance, and Supplemental Security Income. For men born in 1960, however, high earners are projected to receive markedly more — $132,000 more — in lifetime benefits from entitlement programs than is projected for men in the bottom earnings category.

For women, the lowest earners born in 1930 receive $129,000 more in benefits (mostly through Medicaid) than the top earners. However, lower income women born in 1960 are projected to fare far less well: Those in the highest earning bracket are projected to receive $28,000 more in lifetime benefits than those in the bottom income bracket.